eMarketer’s Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2025 found that global retail ecommerce reached $6.419 trillion in 2025, growing 6.8% year over year. That growth rate is the slowest since 2022, and yet 2.77 billion people worldwide now shop online, per DataReportal’s Digital 2025 report. The market is maturing. The stakes for each conversion, each return, and each fraud event are rising in proportion.
This post collects 60+ verified ecommerce statistics for 2026, organized by the categories that matter most to operators: market size, consumer behavior, mobile, social commerce, B2B, payments, returns, fraud, and AI. Every stat is sourced inline on first mention. Where figures conflict across sources or where a primary source could not be confirmed, that is noted directly.
Ecommerce at a Glance: Key Stats for 2026
eMarketer’s 2025 Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast projects global retail ecommerce will reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, representing 21.1% of all retail commerce worldwide. The following figures frame the scale of that market before the section-by-section breakdown below.
- $6.419 trillion in global retail ecommerce sales in 2025 (eMarketer)
- $1.2337 trillion in US retail ecommerce in 2025, up 5.4% from 2024 (US Census Bureau)
- 16.4% of all US retail sales came through ecommerce channels in 2025 (US Census Bureau)
- 2.77 billion people worldwide now shop online (DataReportal Digital 2025)
- 70.22% average cart abandonment rate across 50 documented studies (Baymard Institute, Sep 2025)
- $849.9 billion in merchandise returned to US retailers in 2025, equal to 15.8% of annual sales (NRF / Happy Returns 2025 Retail Returns Landscape)
- $4.61 average cost to US merchants for every $1 of fraud incurred (LexisNexis Risk Solutions True Cost of Fraud Study 2025)
- 84% of retailers use AI in some form; only 6% of consumers are willing to let AI agents authorize purchases on their behalf (Salesforce State of Commerce 2025; Worldpay GPR 2026)
Global Ecommerce Market Size and Growth
eMarketer’s Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast (February 2025) provides the most widely cited primary benchmark for global market size. The $6.88 trillion projection for 2026 represents 21.1% of all retail commerce, up from 19.5% in 2023. Some sources, including Statista, project a higher 2026 figure in the range of $7.41 trillion. eMarketer’s methodology is more conservative and its forecast is the standard used by institutional analysts; this post uses eMarketer as the anchor and notes the range where relevant.
Per eMarketer, global ecommerce is projected to represent 22.5% of total retail by 2028, up from 21.1% in 2026. The $8 trillion threshold is expected by 2027, also per eMarketer’s multi-year forecast.
China and the US together account for more than three-quarters of global ecommerce volume. eMarketer’s 2025 US Ecommerce Market Shares report found that China controls 39.2% of global ecommerce market share; the US holds 38.2%. No other single market comes close to either.
eMarketer’s 2025 US Ecommerce Market Shares report found that Amazon accounts for 40.4% to 40.5% of all US retail ecommerce sales, representing $491.65 billion in revenue. Walmart is a distant second at 6.4% US market share. The concentration of US ecommerce in a single retailer has no parallel in any other mature retail market.
On the infrastructure side, BuiltWith’s 2025 trend data found that Shopify powers 27.3% of all ecommerce websites globally, making it the dominant platform for mid-market and direct-to-consumer operators.
One forward-looking figure worth tracking: eMarketer projects that AI platforms will account for 1.5% of total US retail ecommerce sales in 2026 ($20.57 billion), nearly four times the 2025 figure. That trajectory underlies the agentic commerce section later in this post.
US Ecommerce: What the Government Data Shows
The US Census Bureau publishes quarterly retail ecommerce estimates drawn directly from survey data of US merchants. Most ecommerce statistics posts rely on secondary aggregators; the Census data is the government’s own count and carries the highest evidentiary weight for US-specific figures.
Census Bureau Q4 2025 release
The Census Bureau’s Q4 2025 release confirmed that US retail ecommerce totaled $316.1 billion in Q4 2025 alone, and $1.2337 trillion across the full year. Full-year 2025 ecommerce was up 5.4% from 2024, while total US retail grew only 2.7% in Q4 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The differential between 5.3% ecommerce growth and 2.7% total retail growth in Q4 shows that ecommerce continues to outpace brick-and-mortar at a meaningful rate, even as the absolute gap narrows.
The Census Bureau counted ecommerce as 16.4% of all US retail sales in 2025. That share figure is particularly useful for category analysis: grocery, which eMarketer projects to become the largest US ecommerce category by 2026 at 19.0% of ecommerce, remains in early-stage online adoption relative to apparel (18.7%) and electronics (15.5%).
Consumer Shopping Behavior
The Baymard Institute’s September 2025 analysis aggregated 50 published studies on shopping cart abandonment. The resulting average, 70.22%, is the most cited single figure in checkout optimization. The most recent single-study rate in Baymard’s database, from Uptain in 2025, came in at 71.72%. Both figures point to the same structural reality: for every ten customers who reach a cart, seven leave without buying.
Top reasons for cart abandonment
Baymard’s 2025 data identifies the leading abandonment drivers: 39% of shoppers cite unexpected extra costs (shipping, tax, fees) as their primary reason for leaving. Account creation requirements are cited by 19%, and a lengthy or complex checkout by 18%. The practical implication Baymard draws from its 10-year checkout testing program is that large ecommerce sites could gain a 35.26% increase in conversion rate through checkout design improvements alone, without changing pricing or marketing spend.
Free returns and purchase intent
The NRF / Happy Returns 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report found that 82% of consumers cite free returns as a major purchase consideration, up from 76% in the prior year’s study. That shift matters for customer service teams: the conversation about whether an item ships free is increasingly matched by a conversation about whether a return ships free. Both drive or suppress conversion.
AI-assisted shopping and traffic
The Salesforce Connected Shoppers Report (2025) found that 39% of US consumers have already used generative AI while shopping online. More telling is the conversion quality of that traffic: Salesforce also reported that online traffic from AI assistants to retail sites grew 119% year over year in H1 2025, and that AI-generated traffic converts at a rate 700% higher than social media traffic. For merchants, the implication is that a consumer arriving via an AI assistant is materially further along the decision path than one arriving via social.
For a deeper look at how response speed affects ecommerce conversion, see the DMIBPO customer service statistics roundup, which covers response-time benchmarks across channels.
Mobile Commerce
Mordor Intelligence’s M-Commerce Market report found that mobile commerce accounts for 59% of total global retail ecommerce sales in 2025. The US lags the global average by a wide margin: mobile represents only 44.6% of US ecommerce, versus 59% globally, a gap that reflects both the higher desktop conversion rates observed in mature Western markets and the slower adoption of mobile payment infrastructure outside major metros.
Mobile ecommerce market size
Mordor Intelligence projects the global mobile commerce market will reach $2.82 trillion in 2026, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 8.09% from 2026 through 2031, reaching $4.16 trillion by the end of that period. The Asia-Pacific region held the largest m-commerce market share in 2025 at $954.65 billion.
Mobile holiday dominance and abandonment
Adobe Analytics’ 2025 Holiday Shopping Report found that mobile accounted for 56.4% of all US online holiday sales from November 1 through December 31, 2025, up from 54.5% in 2024. The holiday shopping period is the clearest leading indicator of where year-round mobile share is heading.
On abandonment: industry benchmark data from Dynamic Yield (via multiple aggregators) suggests mobile shopping carts abandon at approximately 85.65%, well above the 70.22% cross-device average from Baymard. This figure should be treated as an industry benchmark estimate; the Dynamic Yield source is a secondary compilation, not a primary study with a published methodology. The directional finding, that mobile abandonment clearly exceeds desktop abandonment, is consistent across multiple published sources, but the precise figure warrants some caution.
Approximately 1.65 billion people are expected to shop via smartphones in 2025, per Statista’s global estimates.
Social Commerce and Live Shopping
Mordor Intelligence’s Social Commerce Market report valued the global social commerce market at $1.63 trillion in 2025, projecting growth to $2.11 trillion in 2026. The Asia-Pacific region holds 73.2% of global social commerce revenue share, while North America is the fastest-growing region at a 32.11% compound annual growth rate.
Platform buyer counts
eMarketer / Insider Intelligence estimated 2025 US social commerce buyers at 74 million on Facebook and 37.8 million on TikTok. Facebook’s buyer count reflects its established marketplace infrastructure; TikTok Shop’s growth trajectory is steeper from a smaller base.
Live commerce projections
Coresight Research projects US live commerce (livestream shopping) will reach $68 billion by 2026, representing more than 5% of total ecommerce. That figure is cited widely as a 2023 projection; Coresight’s original publication should be consulted before using this number in materials requiring primary-source precision, as the original report URL has not been independently confirmed.
A frequently cited conversion figure for live shopping, that shoppable live streams convert at up to 30% versus 2-3% for traditional ecommerce, circulates across multiple publications but traces to no single confirmed primary study. It is omitted from the statistics count here on that basis. The directional claim (live formats convert at higher rates than traditional ecommerce) is broadly supported; the specific percentage is not verifiable at this time.
Note on market size projections: Grand View Research projects global social commerce reaching $17.8 trillion by 2033 at a 37.4% CAGR, while Mordor Intelligence’s model projects $7.55 trillion by 2031 at 29.12%. The Mordor figure is used here as the more conservative primary cite. The divergence reflects different geographic scope definitions and methodology choices.
For social media’s role in customer service specifically, see the DMIBPO guide to social media customer service outsourcing.
B2B Ecommerce
B2B ecommerce is the largest and least-discussed segment of the global ecommerce market. The figures from the International Trade Administration and Digital Commerce 360 establish the scale.
Global B2B scale
The International Trade Administration’s ecommerce sales size forecast found that the global B2B ecommerce market reached $32.11 trillion in 2025, growing at a 14.5% compound annual growth rate. At that CAGR, the global B2B market is trending toward $36 trillion in 2026. For context, that figure is roughly five times the size of global B2C ecommerce.
US B2B ecommerce
Digital Commerce 360 reported in January 2026 that US B2B ecommerce site sales hit $2.297 trillion in 2024, a 10.5% year-over-year increase. Digital Commerce 360 also found that more than 90% of B2B transactions are now conducted electronically. The shift from phone- and fax-based procurement to digital channels is essentially complete in the US market for large and mid-size companies.
For context on how B2B outsourcing connects to these commerce volumes, the DMIBPO outsourcing statistics roundup covers the labor and services side of the B2B services market.
Payments and Checkout Trends
The Worldpay Global Payments Report 2026, released March 31, 2026, is the most current primary source for payment method share data. All figures in this section draw from that report unless otherwise noted.
| Payment Method | Share of Global Ecommerce Value (2025) | Trend to 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Digital wallets | 56% | Growing (POS share: 33%) |
| Credit cards | 23% | Declining to ~18% by 2030 |
| Debit cards | Included in card share | Stable |
| BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) | Grew from $2.2B (2014) to $342B (2024) | Projected $500B by 2030 |
| Cryptocurrency | 0.19% | Marginal (merchant adoption ~10%) |
The BNPL trajectory is the most striking in the payments data. BNPL grew from $2.2 billion in 2014 to $342 billion in 2024, a 155-fold increase over a decade. Worldpay projects the category will reach $500 billion in global ecommerce value by 2030.
Digital wallets’ 56% share of global ecommerce transaction value contrasts with their 33% share of global point-of-sale transactions, which reflects the faster adoption of mobile payment infrastructure in digital-first retail environments.
Cryptocurrency’s 0.19% share, despite approximately 10% merchant adoption, signals that acceptance does not translate to usage at the checkout level. The gap between merchant adoption and consumer uptake in crypto mirrors a larger trust-adoption dynamic explored in the AI section below.
For SMS-versus-email payment reminders and how channel choice affects recovery rates, see the DMIBPO SMS vs. email statistics roundup.
Ecommerce Return Rates by Category
Returns are the most under-reported cost in ecommerce, yet they shape margin more than acquisition cost for many categories. The overall figures from NRF / Happy Returns establish the baseline; the category breakdown below shows where operators face the steepest exposure.
NRF 2025 Retail Returns Landscape: anchor figures
The NRF / Happy Returns 2025 Retail Returns Landscape found that US consumers returned $849.9 billion in merchandise in 2025, representing 15.8% of annual retail sales. The online-specific return rate is higher: 19.3% of online sales will be returned in 2025. Among demographic groups, Gen Z shoppers (ages 18-30) averaged 7.7 online purchase returns in the last 12 months, the highest return frequency of any cohort. The same report found that 9% of all returns are fraudulent, and that 85% of retailers are deploying AI specifically to detect return fraud.
Ecommerce Return Rate Benchmarks by Category (2025 Data)
| Category | Average Return Rate | Primary Driver | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apparel and footwear | 30-40% | Sizing inconsistency | NRF 2025; Capital One Shopping |
| Furniture / home goods | 15-20% | Size and space mismatch | NRF 2025; Corso benchmarks |
| Electronics | 8-10% | Complexity / expectation gap | Red Stag Fulfillment benchmarks |
| Beauty / personal care | ~4.3% | Hygiene restrictions limit returns | Channelwill / NRF 2025 |
| Overall online average | 19.3% | Category mix and fit uncertainty | NRF / Happy Returns 2025 |
| Overall retail average | 15.8% | Channel mix (in-store vs. online) | NRF / Happy Returns 2025 |
Apparel’s 30-40% range has driven significant investment in virtual try-on and AI sizing tools. Even with those tools in place, the category’s return rate remains the highest in ecommerce. For operators, apparel returns are a customer service volume multiplier: every fourth or fifth order generates a return inquiry, exchange request, or refund conversation.
The beauty category’s ~4.3% return rate is the floor in ecommerce, primarily because hygiene restrictions make many returns unsellable. That structural advantage comes with a trade-off: beauty shoppers who cannot return a product simply do not repeat-purchase from that retailer.
Ecommerce Fraud: The Hidden Cost
LexisNexis Risk Solutions’ True Cost of Fraud Study 2025 (published April 2, 2025, N=569 executives surveyed in late 2024 through early 2025) is the most methodologically rigorous current primary source on ecommerce fraud economics. Its central finding: US merchants incur $4.61 in total costs for every $1 of fraud they experience, up 32% from $3.16 in 2022. The total cost figure includes the face value of the fraud loss plus chargebacks, fees, labor, and replacement goods.
What $1 of Ecommerce Fraud Actually Costs
| Data Point | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Total cost per $1 of fraud (US merchants) | $4.61 | LexisNexis TCF Study 2025 |
| Global ecommerce fraud losses (2025) | $48 billion | Juniper Research 2025 |
| Global ecommerce fraud losses (2029 projection) | $107 billion | Juniper Research 2025 |
| Share of US ecommerce with fully automated fraud prevention | 6% | LexisNexis TCF Study 2025 |
| Retailers citing fraud as a cause of customer churn | 63% | LexisNexis TCF Study 2025 |
Juniper Research found that global ecommerce fraud losses reached $48 billion in 2025 and projects those losses will grow to $107 billion by 2029, a 123% increase over four years. The primary driver in Juniper’s model is the growth of account takeover attacks and synthetic identity fraud, both of which are accelerating with AI-generated credential tools.
The LexisNexis study adds an operational dimension that headline fraud numbers miss: 41% of North American merchants rely on manual fraud prevention, and only 6% of US ecommerce operations are fully automated on fraud detection. The automation gap creates a compounding cost structure, as fraud volumes scale faster than manual review capacity.
The churn figure from LexisNexis deserves particular attention: 63% of ecommerce and retail respondents say fraud contributes to customer churn. A customer who experiences a fraudulent charge, a failed order, or an account takeover does not simply absorb the loss; they leave. The cost of fraud is therefore not limited to the transaction level; it extends into customer lifetime value.
AI, Personalization, and Agentic Commerce
The most forward-looking section of any 2026 ecommerce statistics post sits here. Three primary research organizations have published quantified estimates of AI’s economic role in ecommerce: McKinsey, Salesforce, and Worldpay. Their data covers different segments of the AI-ecommerce relationship, and together they produce a coherent picture of where the market is heading and where the friction lies.
McKinsey’s Next in Personalization report (2024) found that personalization drives a 10-15% revenue lift for ecommerce businesses, and that leading companies generate 40% more revenue from personalization than average performers. McKinsey’s separate analysis of generative AI’s impact on retail projects margin increases of 1.2 to 1.9 percentage points from personalization, content generation, and customer service applications combined.
Agentic commerce: the $3-5 trillion opportunity
McKinsey’s Agentic Commerce Opportunity report (October 2025) estimated that agentic commerce could redirect $3 to $5 trillion in global retail spend by 2030. Agentic commerce refers to AI agents operating with sufficient autonomy to browse, compare, select, and complete purchases on behalf of consumers, without requiring a human decision at each step.
Salesforce’s data on AI’s current commerce influence is already substantial: AI agents directly influenced $67 billion in Cyber Week 2025 purchases, with one in five orders worldwide involving some form of AI assistance. 76% of ecommerce teams with AI credit it with revenue growth, and 97% of commerce organizations have AI plans in place. The Salesforce State of Commerce report also found that 84% of retailers are using AI in some form, with 43% specifically piloting agentic AI.
The AI Commerce Trust Gap
Salesforce reports that 84% of retailers are using AI in some form. Worldpay’s 2026 Global Payments Report consumer survey found that only 6% of consumers are willing to let AI agents authorize purchases on their behalf. The 78-point gap between merchant adoption and consumer authorization readiness is the central tension of agentic commerce in 2026.
The AI Commerce Trust Gap explains why the $3-5 trillion McKinsey agentic commerce projection is a 2030 target, not a 2026 reality. Consumer authorization rates at 6% create a ceiling on autonomous AI purchasing, regardless of merchant readiness or technical capability. Closing that gap requires merchants to earn trust at the transaction level: transparent AI disclosures, easy override mechanisms, and zero tolerance for AI-authorized errors.
Within the AI Commerce Trust Gap, customer service is the critical pressure point. A consumer who has experienced a fast, accurate AI-assisted resolution is materially more likely to authorize an AI purchase recommendation than one who has not. The connection between post-purchase service quality and pre-purchase AI authorization readiness is not yet well-documented in published research, but the logic is consistent with LexisNexis’s finding that 63% of retailers report fraud-related churn: negative post-purchase experiences reduce trust across every future interaction, including AI-mediated ones.
eMarketer’s projection that AI platforms will account for $20.57 billion in US retail ecommerce sales in 2026 (1.5% of the total, nearly four times the 2025 figure) represents the consumer-authorization-constrained ceiling of agentic commerce at its current trust level. The 78-point AI Commerce Trust Gap is what separates that $20.57 billion current trajectory from the $3-5 trillion long-term potential.
What These Stats Mean for Ecommerce Customer Experience
Three figures tie together the customer experience implications of the data above. Industry research aggregated by LiveChat AI found that 64% of ecommerce shoppers expect a customer service response within one hour. eDesk research found that 60% of customers cite long wait times as the top frustration in customer support. And the LexisNexis True Cost of Fraud Study 2025 found that 63% of retailers report fraud contributes to customer churn. Taken together: speed, availability, and fraud resolution are not optional for ecommerce operators. They are the floor.
Digital Minds BPO has supported ecommerce operators across live chat, email, and order management for more than 15 years, with dedicated teams at three facilities in Naga City, a 94% client retention rate, and an average partnership of 4.7 years. The starting point for operators ready to build or scale a dedicated team is the ecommerce outsourcing service page, with channel-specific coverage at live chat support outsourcing, outsource email support, and phone support outsourcing. The conversation starts at book.dmibpo.com.
For further reading on live chat as a conversion and service channel, see the DMIBPO live chat statistics roundup and the guide to live chat apps for Shopify.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big is the global ecommerce market in 2026?
eMarketer’s Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast projects global retail ecommerce will reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, representing 21.1% of all retail commerce. Some sources, including Statista, project a higher figure near $7.41 trillion. The eMarketer estimate is the more conservative and widely cited institutional benchmark. At the current trajectory, global ecommerce is expected to cross $8 trillion by 2027.
What is the average ecommerce cart abandonment rate?
The Baymard Institute’s September 2025 analysis of 50 published studies found an average cart abandonment rate of 70.22%. The most recent single-study rate in Baymard’s database is 71.72% (Uptain, 2025). The primary abandonment driver is unexpected extra costs, cited by 39% of shoppers, followed by forced account creation at 19% and complex checkout at 18%. Baymard’s 10-year checkout testing program indicates that large ecommerce sites could gain 35.26% more conversions through checkout design improvements alone.
What percentage of ecommerce orders are returned?
The NRF / Happy Returns 2025 Retail Returns Landscape found that 19.3% of online sales are returned, compared to 15.8% for all retail (including in-store). Return rates vary sharply by category: apparel returns at 30-40%, furniture and home goods at 15-20%, electronics at 8-10%, and beauty at around 4.3%. Of all returns, 9% are fraudulent, and 85% of retailers are deploying AI to detect return fraud.
What is the most common payment method in ecommerce?
Digital wallets accounted for 56% of global ecommerce transaction value in 2025, per the Worldpay Global Payments Report 2026. Credit cards are second at approximately 23% but are projected to decline to 18% by 2030. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) has grown from $2.2 billion in 2014 to $342 billion in 2024, with Worldpay projecting $500 billion by 2030. Cryptocurrency remains marginal at 0.19% of global ecommerce value despite approximately 10% merchant adoption.
How much does ecommerce fraud cost merchants?
LexisNexis Risk Solutions’ True Cost of Fraud Study 2025 (N=569 executives) found that US merchants incur $4.61 for every $1 of fraud, a 32% increase from $3.16 in 2022. Globally, Juniper Research found that ecommerce fraud losses reached $48 billion in 2025 and projects growth to $107 billion by 2029. Beyond the direct loss, 63% of retailers in the LexisNexis study report that fraud contributes to customer churn, making fraud a lifetime value problem, not just a transaction-level one.
What is the AI Commerce Trust Gap?
The AI Commerce Trust Gap refers to the 78-point difference between merchant AI adoption (84% of retailers using AI in some form, per Salesforce) and consumer authorization readiness (only 6% of consumers willing to let AI agents authorize purchases, per Worldpay GPR 2026). The gap represents the primary friction point between the current state of AI in ecommerce and the $3-5 trillion agentic commerce potential McKinsey projects by 2030. Closing the gap requires merchants to establish trust at the post-purchase level before earning it at the purchase-authorization level.
Mordor Intelligence found that mobile commerce accounted for 59% of total global retail ecommerce sales in 2025. The US lags the global average with mobile at 44.6% of US ecommerce. Adobe Analytics found that mobile accounted for 56.4% of all US online holiday sales in 2025 (November through December), up from 54.5% in 2024. The global mobile commerce market is projected to reach $2.82 trillion in 2026 and $4.16 trillion by 2031, per Mordor Intelligence.
How large is the B2B ecommerce market?
The International Trade Administration found that the global B2B ecommerce market reached $32.11 trillion in 2025, growing at a 14.5% CAGR. In the US specifically, Digital Commerce 360 reported that B2B ecommerce site sales hit $2.297 trillion in 2024, up 10.5% year over year. More than 90% of B2B transactions are now conducted electronically, making B2B the largest and most fully digitized segment of global ecommerce by total value.
Sofia Reyes is a Content Writer and SEO Specialist at Digital Minds BPO, where she focuses on outsourcing-industry research and educational content for business decision-makers. Based in the Philippines, she has 7 years of experience writing B2B content across SEO, content strategy, and Generative Engine Optimization (GEO). Sofia partners with Digital Minds BPO’s operations and account management teams to translate 15+ years of frontline BPO experience into clear, sourced guides on call center, customer service, and back-office outsourcing. Her work supports prospects evaluating outsourcing decisions across the company’s three dedicated facilities, where the team delivers a 94% client retention rate for clients ranging from Fortune 500 enterprises to growth-stage businesses.
